For many months, there has been a threat of recession in Canada. So much so that everyone is on the alert and preparing for the worst case scenario. This expectation is explained by the persistent inflation – even if the situation seems to be improving – and by the successive increases in the Bank of Canada’s key rate. The question is whether the risks of losing one’s job are increased with the coming recession.
Les facteurs de récession
· Les marchés financiers
The evolution of the financial markets has an undeniable influence on the recession. Although the Canadian stock market is fairly stable, especially when compared to the European and U.S. markets, it is possible that macroeconomic events could upset this balance. These include legislation, geopolitical instability and natural disasters.
· La politique monétaire
The Central Bank has a significant influence on the Canadian economy (and this is true for most countries in the world). It is indeed its responsibility to design the country’s monetary policy and to take decisions in the light of the global context. In fact, the Bank of Canada has taken the decision to raise the policy rate 8 times since 2022, bringing it to 4.50%, an increase that comes after 2 years without any increase. The objective was to control inflation which was particularly high. Such an important change has an effect on money flows, but also on investments.
· Autres facteurs à prendre en compte
In addition to the evolution of the financial markets and the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, there are other factors to keep in mind that could lead to a recession. Here are some of them: the economic growth rate, the production, the level of debt (public and private) or the employment. If several of these factors decline, a recession could be on the horizon.
Qu’en est-il de l’emploi ?
With respect to employment in Canada, there are two important facts to keep in mind that have been highlighted by the Central Bank:
- La pénurie de main-d’œuvre
- La quantité importante de postes vacants
Against this backdrop, it is fair to say that the Canadian labour market should remain stable. One could even go further: if a person were to lose his or her job because of a (possible) recession, he or she should easily find another one… However, there will be economic sectors that will be impacted as early as 2023, namely all sectors that benefit from discretionary income, i.e. restaurants, arts and leisure. Any allocation of the budget that is now devoted to debt service affects discretionary spending. In the event of layoffs in these sectors, the affected individuals will have to accept positions in other types of industries or sectors. In any case, employers do not plan to slow down recruitment.
Job losses do not appear to be about to increase in 2023 in Canada. According to employers, employees and even financial experts, the hiring (and possibly firing) situation is expected to remain similar to previous years. Therefore, one should not worry about a job loss.